Hump Day Lines: Round 3

Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.

Well, round 2 was pretty straight forward from a head-to-head perspective with only one non-favourite winning, that being the Tigers who were slight underdogs against Collingwood.  At the line however it was tough as usual with mixed results for our tipsters.  No doubt it is a bit embarrassing that Away Teams are leading the way at this point.

Keep in mind that with the line tipping format, if you can pick over 50% correct, you’re doing well.  If you manage to get over 60% you’re doing really well and over 70% is exceptional. Here are the standings after round 2:

Rd2-table

ROUND 3 LINES

Sydney -21.5 / Collingwood +21.5

Both these teams have had a 0-2 start to the year and will be desperate to get that first win.

From Collingwood’s perspective I don’t think they could face the Swans at a worse time – the Grand Final loss would still be eating at them, two losses to start 2017 and Dan Hannebery supposedly hasn’t had a drink in 188 days (since the GF loss).  This is one angry group of men.

I’m expecting the Pies to be on the wrong end of a big thumping in Buddy’s 250th game – Swans to cover the 21.5 point line.

Tips:

Sydney -21.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan

Collingwood +21.5 points – Moose Dogs, TRM, Ding Dong

sydney1
Sydney in Sydney after a 0-2 start – tough challenge for the Pies

North Melbourne +30.5 / GWS -30.5

North put up a gallant showing against the Cats last week going down by 1 point while the Giants gave the Suns a royal hiding winning by 102 points.  These teams only played once in 2016 which was round 23 at Etihad Stadium and the Giants won by 37 points.  However, that final round match didn’t count for much for North because win, lose or draw they were locked into 8th spot on the ladder.

To add to this tricky form line this game will be played down in Tasmania.

Tips:

North Melbourne +30.5 points – Dusty, Big O, TRM, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong

GWS -30.5 points – Moose Dogs

Richmond +12.5 / West Coast -12.5

The Tiger Army are up and about after wins over Carlton and Collingwood but this match is undoubtedly a tougher task even at the MCG.  The Eagles do need to learn how to play at the MCG though – last year they had three matches there for losses against Hawthorn and Collingwood and only a narrow 7-point victory over Carlton.

I think the Eagles will get it right this year – West Coast to cover the 12.5 point line.

Tips:

Richmond +12.5 points – Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong

West Coast -12.5 points – Dusty, Big O, TRM, Hollywood

Geelong -17.5 / Melbourne +17.5

Again the Cats have a home game at Etihad Stadium where they don’t have the same advantage as they do playing in Geelong.  They scraped home by only a point against the Kangaroos at Etihad last week.

The Demons are travelling ok but they will be up against it this week with a couple of key players out on suspension (Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis).  Based on a weakened Dees line-up, expect the Cats to cover the 17.5 point line.

Tips:

Geelong -17.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Hollywood

Melbourne +17.5 points – Shan, Ding Dong

DangerfieldMarch2016
Patrick Dangerfield could blow this line to pieces

Port Adelaide +12.5 / Adelaide -12.5

Both SA clubs have started the 2017 season with a bang and find themselves 1st and 2nd on the ladder coming into the Showdown on Saturday night.  The Crows won both clashes between these teams in 2016 with the most recent one being by 15 points in round 22.

With very little confidence I’m taking the Crows to cover the 12.5 point line.

Tips:

Port Adelaide +12.5 points – Big O

Adelaide -12.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, TRM, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong

Fremantle +31.5 / Western Bulldogs -31.5

In round 1 last year the Dogs had a very significant 65 point win over the Dockers in Melbourne.  For the Dogs it set them on their way for what turned out to be an incredible year that concluded with an amazing run through the finals and a premature premiership for their young list of players.  For the Dockers, that round 1 defeat was the start of one of the worst collapses in AFL history going from minor premiers in 2015 to finishing 16th in 2016.

The Dogs are rightfully heavy favourites but 31.5 points is a big line to cover in the west.

Tips:

Fremantle +31.5 points – Shan

Western Bulldogs -31.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Hollywood, Ding Dong

St Kilda -32.5 / Brisbane +32.5

This is the biggest line for round 3 and deservedly so.  The Saints won both matches against the Lions last year – firstly by 22 points at the Gabba in round 9 and then again by 58 points down in Melbourne in round 23.

It feels like the Saints could win big again at Etihad Stadium.  We all seem to be in agreement on that.

Tips:

St Kilda -32.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong

Brisbane +32.5 points – none

Carlton +28.5 / Essendon -28.5

Traditional rivals face off on the MCG at the untraditional time of 3:20pm on a Sunday afternoon. That time slot (and even more so the Sunday 4:40pm time slot) must be great for TV ratings/revenues because it’s not great for fans who want to head to the game.

This is a big line for the Bombers to cover but considering they beat Hawthorn by 25 points in round 1 they should go past 28.5 points over Carlton.

 Tips:

Carlton +28.5 points – Ding Dong

Essendon -28.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Hollywood, Shan

Gold Coast +20.5 / Hawthorn -20.5

It’s really hard to assess where the Hawks are at this year with significant player movements in the offseason and two defeats to start the season against teams who look like they might outperform most people’s preseason expectations.

Gold Coast on the other hand are easier to read – they’re terrible.

Hawks to smash the 20.5 point line.

Tips:

Gold Coast +20.5 points – Hollywood

Hawthorn -20.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Shan, Ding Dong

 

Round 3 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..

Share your “lock of the week” in the comments section of this page or under the Facebook post [Footy Inc. on Facebook].

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