Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
The ANZAC Day match rounded out round 5 then the very next day we were presented with hump day lines for round 6 – how good is that? And there are a few cracking matches to look forward to with the preliminary final rematch between the Giants and Dogs and the western derby being two standouts.
On the tipping front most managed a positive return in round 6 and the line continues to favour the away teams (25 wins & 20 losses for the season). The table after round 5:
ROUND 6 LINES
GWS -18.5 / Western Bulldogs +18.5
4th vs 5th, both teams are 4 wins 1 loss and it’s a rematch of the classic preliminary final from last year that the Dogs snatched by 6 points. There’s a lot of expectation around this one.
The Giants are pretty solid favourites with the line at 18.5 points. Let’s hope for another close one like the prelim.
GWS -18.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Ding Dong, TRM
Western Bulldogs +18.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan
Hawthorn -3.5 / St Kilda +3.5
Geelong thumped the Hawks by 86 points two weeks ago then beat St Kilda by 38 points last week in a closer match that blew out towards the end. Does that Geelong form line mean anything? Probably not – the Hawks looked like they turned a corner last week with a big win over the Eagles and should cover the line here.
Hawthorn -3.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
St Kilda +3.5 points – Moose Dogs
Carlton +29.5 / Sydney -29.5
Sydney are angry and Carlton are bad (in fairness the Blues are also very young). The Swans should smash the 29.5 point line.
Carlton +29.5 points – none
Sydney -29.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan, Moose Dogs, Ding Dong, TRM
Brisbane +33.5 / Port Adelaide -33.5
Brisbane has lost their last four games by an average of 35.5 points and they come up against Port who knows how to win big when they smell blood (their wins over Freo by 89 points and Carl by 90 points are examples of that). Port to cover the 33.5 point line.
Brisbane +33.5 points – Hollywood, Moose Dogs
Port Adelaide -33.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
North Melbourne -15.5 / Gold Coast +15.5
After a very tough first five matches, North Melbourne finally gets an easier opponent and a good chance to get on the winners sheet. The Gold Coast’s form has been up and down like a yo-yo so who knows which Suns team will show up on Saturday night?
North at Etihad Stadium desperate for a win should cover the line.
North Melbourne -15.5 points – Dusty, Shan, Moose Dogs, TRM
Gold Coast +15.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, Ding Dong
West Coast -20.5 / Fremantle +20.5
The Eagles will be shattered after their cursed run at the MCG continued last week with a 50 point loss to the Hawks.
Freo on the other hand come into the western derby in surprisingly good form with three straight wins. West Coast in a derby will be a tough ask though and it makes sense for the Eagles to be solid favourites.
Hopefully this one stays close but the return of Sam Mitchell tips me over onto the Eagles side of the line.
West Coast -20.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Moose Dogs
Fremantle +20.5 points – Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
Essendon -0.5 / Melbourne +0.5
This is basically a head-to-head pick with the line set at 0.5 points on Wednesday however since then the line has drifted a little with the Bombers firming as favourites (-3.5 point line) in the absence of Jesse Hogan from the Demons line-up following the sad passing of his father.
The Demons have injury problems (particularly in the ruck department) but will be helped by the return of Jordan Lewis from suspension.
Both teams are coming off a short break between matches. It’s hard to go past the Bombers after their performance on ANZAC day and the Dees injury concerns only add to the case.
Essendon -0.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Moose Dogs
Melbourne +0.5 points – Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
Geelong -24.5 / Collingwood +24.5
The 7-day break (Cats) vs 5-day break (Pies) could be a factor here. Plus, how could you fault Geelong who are cruising along at 5-0? Collingwood did beat Geelong in round 9 last year but they are struggling badly at the moment and the short break makes matters worse.
Geelong -24.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan, Moose Dogs, TRM
Collingwood +24.5 points – Ding Dong
Adelaide -34.5 / Richmond +34.5
This will likely be where the Tiger train derails but can they stay within this pretty big line (34.5 points)? Sure they have had a soft draw so far but Richmond is definitely playing more exciting football than in the past.
Adelaide, who is also 5-0, has an average winning margin of 46 points so far this season. I think they can cover the 34.5 point line and carry on with this magical start to the season.
Adelaide -34.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Ding Dong
Richmond +34.5 points – Hollywood, Shan, Moose Dogs, TRM
Round 6 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..
Share your “lock of the week” as a comment on the Facebook post.