Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
With the exception of the Lions who are a truly bad team, this is an incredibly even season. Positions 15th to 17th on the ladder are filled by Sydney, North Melbourne and Collingwood who all have a win/loss of 2-6 but have a percentage of between 91% and 95%. All have had narrow losses that have been extremely costly.
At the top of the table the best win/loss record is 6-2 with a couple of those teams benefiting from winning the close ones – namely the Giants (beating the Bulldogs by 2 points in round 6 and beating the Pies last week by 3 points) and the Eagles who have won their last two matches by margins of 10 points and 8 points.
The highlight (or more accurately “the low-light”) from the round 8 line tipping was our first donut of the year. See the full table at the bottom of the post.
Time for round 9 lines.
ROUND 9 LINES
Geelong +1.5 / Western Bulldogs -1.5
The Cats have gone into their last three matches as favourites (against Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon) and dropped them all. A win/loss of 8-0 was a real possibility but now 5-3 they are back with the pack.
The Dogs are also 5-3 but their recent losses have been more respectable including the Eagles in Perth (8 points) and GWS in Canberra (2 points).
In Melbourne this pick would be a quick tick on the Bulldogs side but down in Geelong makes it a harder choice.
Geelong +1.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, Ding Dong
Western Bulldogs -1.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
St Kilda -5.5 / Sydney +5.5
The Saints and Swans have played three times in the past three years and the Swans have won all three at an average margin of 79 points. But this is a different Saints team now so this should be a much tighter contest as the 5.5 point line suggests.
The Saints keep rolling on although last week’s win over Carlton was a bit of a scrap. They will need to improve on that effort against Sydney who seem to have turned the corner and may still make a sneaky run for the finals. Swans to cover.
St Kilda -5.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM
Sydney +5.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong
GWS -27.5 / Richmond +27.5
GWS keep finding a way to win with their narrow 2-point win over Collingwood taking them to a win/loss of 6-2 and second position on the ladder. The Giants injury list is mounting so the middle section of the season becomes very important for them as they look to secure a good starting position in the finals.
Richmond are now right back with the pack after a heartbreaking after-the-siren loss last week and will now have to fight tooth and nail just to stay in the top 8 (and yes the “9th position” gags have re-emerged).
In round 19 last season the Giants gave the Tigers an almighty belting by 88-points. Surely this time the Tigers put up a better fight than that effort where they only scored 23 points across the four quarters.
GWS -27.5 points – Hollywood, Ding Dong
Richmond +27.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
Brisbane +49.5 / Adelaide -49.5
In 2015 Adelaide beat Brisbane by 87 points. Then in 2016 the Crows won by 138 points. It is surely not possible for that margin to be even bigger in 2017 is it?
The line is big (49.5 points) but not ridiculously big considering this is first versus last on the ladder and the top-of-the-table team are angry after two straight losses. I feel sorry for the Lions copping the Crows right now – a 100+ point win for the Crows would not be a huge surprise.
Brisbane +49.5 points – Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
Adelaide -49.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, TRM
Collingwood -12.5 / Hawthorn +12.5
With Hawthorn’s injury concerns growing rapidly, Collingwood find themselves as favourites in this match. And the Pies continue to get close but just can’t get over the line, last week losing at the death to GWS.
The Pies are due for a win and they cop the Hawks at a perfect time as they struggle to cover injuries to good players. Pies to cover.
Collingwood -12.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM
Hawthorn +12.5 points – Ding Dong
Essendon +11.5 / West Coast -11.5
Toss the coin for this line. Man for man West Coast are a better football team but every time they come to Melbourne you don’t know what to expect.
Essendon have battled hard to get to a win/loss of 4-4, only dropping one match that they were expected to win (against Carlton in round 3), so expect them to hang around in this one as well.
Essendon +11.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood
West Coast -11.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
Melbourne -12.5 / North Melbourne +12.5
Both of these teams have dished out serious beltings to the Crows during the past two weeks. The Demons win was particularly impressive as they turned a 28-point deficit during the 2nd quarter into a 41-point win.
North was soundly beaten by the Swans last week but I can’t see them being easily beaten two weeks in a row.
On form the Dees are rightfully favourites but I feel like the Kangaroos will make this match very competitive.
Melbourne -12.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
North Melbourne +12.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Ding Dong
Fremantle -20.5 / Carlton +20.5
As gallant as Carlton has been all year it feels like Fremantle will glide past this line. After an after-the-siren win over the Tigers the Dockers will have their tails up and will enjoy being back in Perth.
The good news for Carlton fans is that they have won 5 out of 8 games at the line so far this season yet fools like me keep tipping against them.
Fremantle -20.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong, TRM
Carlton +20.5 points – Big O
Moose Dogs collects the first donut for season 2017 – interestingly he has also posted the highest single round score with 8 out of 9 in round 4. Here is the table after round 8:
Round 9 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..
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