Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
Underdogs (60%) and away teams (59%) continue to win a majority of matches at the line this season. And this round provides plenty of opportunities to back the underdog and away team with the same pick with 8 out of 9 lines having the home team as the favourite.
Now, straight into round 10 lines (lines drawn on Tuesday due to Thursday night match).
ROUND 10 LINES
Geelong -8.5 / Port Adelaide +8.5
The Cats look like they will be hard to beat down in Geelong this season after a really good win over the Bulldogs on Friday night.
But whether the Cats can bring the same intensity after just a six day break will be the big question mark. Port Adelaide on the other hand has had an 11 day break after the Shanghai match.
With the Away Team and Underdog bias in mind expect the fresh Port team to push the Cats in this one.
Geelong -8.5 points – Big O
Port Adelaide +8.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Sydney -29.5 / Hawthorn +29.5
Sydney are really rolling now with three straight wins putting finals back in the picture. Their premiership odds have come in from 80-1 after round 6 to about 15-1.
This is a big line (29.5 points). Despite Hawthorn’s troubling injury list there should still be enough quality out on the field to keep this within 5 goals.
Sydney -29.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Ding Dong
Hawthorn +29.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan
Western Bulldogs -13.5 / St Kilda +13.5
The Dogs have not lost three games in a row since 2015 (rounds 6 to 8) and will be defending that record against the Saints on Saturday. Everyone is bringing their A-game when they play the Dogs this year which is tough on Bulldogs fans but is great for neutrals with most games going down to the wire.
The Saints sit in 9th spot on the ladder with a 5-4 win/loss record. They are one of the tougher teams to pick this year with their form all over the place – one week winning big against a good team and the next week losing big when they are favourites.
Western Bulldogs -13.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
St Kilda +13.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, Ding Dong
Melbourne -14.5 / Gold Coast +14.5
Everything is unusual about this match. It will be played at Traeger Park – a Melbourne home game in Alice Springs – with the Dees coming off a 6-day break after losing to North Melbourne by 14 points.
Their opponents, the Gold Coast Suns are coming off a 13-day break after a trip to China where they were dealt a 72 point hiding.
For no good reason (but several questionable reasons: extra weeks break, maybe handle the heat better and Away team/Underdog line bias) I can see the Suns taking it up to the Demons.
Melbourne -14.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong
Gold Coast +14.5 points – Dusty, Shan
Richmond -1.5 / Essendon +1.5
The handicappers are predicting this will be a close match which will make Richmond fans nervous after 3 straight losses by less than a goal has left them at breaking point.
The Bombers come into the Dreamtime clash with enormous confidence after great wins over Geelong and West Coast in the past two rounds. Can they snare a third straight win against a desperate Tigers?
Richmond -1.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Essendon +1.5 points – Big O, Hollywood
Adelaide -33.5 / Fremantle +33.5
1st vs 5th on the ladder. The Crows got back on the winners list last week with a crushing 80 point win over the lowly Lions but prior to that they suffered two bad losses against the Roos and Demons.
Fremantle have won three on the trot and have been one of the surprise packets this season.
Sure the Crows should be favourites but, considering both teams recent form, having Freo as 33.5 point underdogs seems a bit high.
[Update: Big Aaron Sandilands’ withdrawal due to injury may impact some people’s pick here – the line is more like 39.5 points now]
Adelaide -33.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong
Fremantle +33.5 points – Dusty, TRM
Collingwood -45.5 / Brisbane +45.5
A lot of people would have flicked off the Pies/Hawks match on Sunday thinking it was all over part way through the second quarter but the Pies turned a 43-point deficit into an 18-point win. Now they get the “gimme put” playing the Lions in Melbourne.
This match is all about the line which is set at 45.5 points. After beating the Suns in round 1 the Lions have lost 8 games in a row by an average margin of 50 points (the last 4 matches by an average of 64 points). And the Pies thumped the Lions by 78 points last year. If the Pies bring their 2nd half form against Hawthorn they can easily reel in this line.
Collingwood -45.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Brisbane +45.5 points – Big O
Carlton +14.5 / North Melbourne -14.5
Carlton has been gallant all year – even last week’s loss to an in-form Fremantle in the west was an honourable effort (although the margin did blow out a bit in the last quarter).
That said, North are in decent form having won 3 of their last 4 matches and also beat the Blues by 67 points last year (round 9).
The Blues are a better team now than in 2016 but North should still be able to cover the 14.5 point line.
Carlton +14.5 points – none
North Melbourne -14.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
West Coast -7.5 / GWS +7.5
The Eagles get back to the comfort of the west coast time zone after another bad lose in Melbourne. Their Melbourne form is an issue but they still have a win/loss record of 6-3 and are sitting 4th on the ladder.
The Giants have stolen their last two matches with last minute wins over the Pies and Tigers and are sitting pretty in 2nd position. Interestingly, GWS will start as underdogs for the first time this season.
The Giants are losing a couple more players to injury this week (Steve Johnson and Rory Lobb) and for that reason I think the Eagles can cover the 7.5 point line.
West Coast -7.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong
GWS +7.5 points – TRM
Here is the table after round 9:
Round 10 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..
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