Hump Day Lines: Round 11

Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.

With ten rounds completed and before the bye rounds kick-in it is the perfect time to reveal the AFL line ladder. It took a few rounds for the handicappers to realise that the Crows are a genuine contender and therefore they have won 8 out of 10 lines. The Tigers have also performed well against the line also running at 80%.

Unsurprisingly the Hawks and Swans are at the bottom of the line ladder with their fall from grace coming as a surprise to most and taking a while for the football community to digest. Both have won only 3 out of 10 lines and it took the Swans until round 7 to win their first.

LINE LADDER

Rd10-team line ladder

Now, let’s cover the round 11 lines. Once again, due to the Thursday night match, lines drawn on Tuesday.

ROUND 11 LINES

Port Adelaide -33.5 / Hawthorn +33.5

The Hawks are listed as heavy underdogs again – they were given 29.5 points against Sydney last week and not only won the line but won the match as well. The Hawks really need to keep winning to get back in the finals race which is made harder by their tough draw.

The Power were very unlucky not to win against the Cats last week and will be happy to play back in Adelaide after trips to China and Geelong.

Same as last week, the Hawks have enough quality players to stay close enough and win this line.

Tips:

Port Adelaide -33.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong

Hawthorn +33.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan

Geelong +4.5 / Adelaide -4.5

Geelong have seen off the Bulldogs and the Power over the last two weeks and adding the scalp of the top-of-the-table Crows would be an amazing finish to three consecutive matches at Simonds Stadium.

Adelaide is coming off a 100 point win over Fremantle last week and an 80 point win over the Lions the week before which is a great return to form after two heavy losses.

1st vs 3rd – this should be a great matchup as the tight line suggests. It’s crazy that none of us have tipped Geelong.

Tips:

Geelong +4.5 points – none

Adelaide -4.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong

Gold Coast +9.5 / West Coast -9.5

The Suns finally get back to Queensland after playing in Shanghai, having a bye round and then a match in Alice Springs. The last time these two teams played at Metricon it resulted in a draw (round 18 2015).

West Coast has dropped two matches in a row and are always dicey away from home but they haven’t lost three in a row since 2014.

Ablett back in the side is handy for the Suns but there is more on the line for the Eagles who are sitting 6th on the ladder. Eagles to take the match and the line.

Tips:

Gold Coast +9.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood

West Coast -9.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong

GWS -28.5 / Essendon +28.5

The Giants are doing a great job of covering for their long list of injuries having scraped wins in four of their last five matches by single-digit margins.

The Bombers have battled bravely to a win/loss of 5-5 but they are now confronted by a tough little run (Giants, Power and the Swans in Sydney) which has the potential to break their finals aspirations.

28.5 points is a pretty big line and those GWS injuries are a concern – Bombers to win the line.

Tips:

GWS -28.5 points – Moose Dogs, TRM, Ding Dong

Essendon +28.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan

bomber image

North Melbourne +5.5 / Richmond -5.5

The Kangaroos have had the wood over the Tigers in recent years winning 7 of their last 8 encounters. This fixture always makes Tiger fans nervous, particularly at Etihad Stadium.

Over the past five weeks the Roos have a win/loss of 4-1 compared to the Tigers 1-4 but the Tigers losses did include narrow losses to good teams including the Bulldogs and Giants.

The Tigers have won 8 out of 10 lines so far this year and should win this one as well if they are a serious finals team in 2017.

Tips:

North Melbourne +5.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood

Richmond -5.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong

Fremantle -4.5 / Collingwood +4.5

This is a crucial match for both teams. With a 4-6 win/loss the Pies need a win here to keep their finals hopes realistic. The Dockers have a 6-4 win/loss but a terrible percentage so a win here followed by a big win over the Lions next week could cement their position in the top 8.

This is another tight line but, with Fasolo out for the Pies, Sandilands back in for the Dockers and the match being played in Perth, this is a line the Dockers should win.

Tips:

Fremantle -4.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood, Shan, TRM

Collingwood +4.5 points – Moose Dogs, Ding Dong

 

STANDINGS

Here is the table after round 10:

Rd10-table

Round 11 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..

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