Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
The Crows continue to dominate the line ladder even now that they are flag favourites and facing some seriously big line. Last week they smashed a -37.5 point line when they beat the Saints by 57 points. They are running at a 75% winning record at the line.
The Hawks lost another match and the line against the Suns last week and now have bottom spot on the line ladder all to themselves with only a 25% success rate.
This is the last of the bye rounds which kicks off on Thursday night. Here are the hump day lines:
ROUND 13 LINES
West Coast +4.5 / Geelong -4.5
The Eagles have lost three straight matches so must find some better form coming off the bye. Josh Kennedy will likely miss this match against the Cats which makes things much harder. A spot back inside the top 8 is on the line.
Conversely, the Cats have won three on the trot and a win here will give them 2nd position on the ladder. Can they continue with the same form away from Simmons Stadium?
Tough, tough choice – Geelong at the -4.5 point line.
West Coast +4.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
Geelong -4.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, TRM
North Melbourne +3.5 / St Kilda -3.5
The Saints have not beaten the Roos since round 23 2011 – that’s 6 straight wins for the Roos.
In 2017 this is an even match-up – 15th vs 12th on the ladder with just one win separating them – and hence the tight line.
You could make arguments either way here but for me the deciding factor will be North’s fresh bodies coming off a bye – 4 of the 6 teams that had a bye in round 11 came back and won in round 12.
North Melbourne +3.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
St Kilda -3.5 points – none
Richmond +3.5 / Sydney -3.5
This is a third match that is effectively a head-to-head choice with the line at just 3.5 points (the Swans as slight favourites).
Most teams would have been happy to play Sydney earlier in the year when they were struggling with a long injury list and poor form but now having won 4 of their last 5 matches they are one of the in-form teams and would be considered a serious threat if they can sneak a finals spot.
The Tigers want to stay ahead of the group fighting for the lower positions in the top 8 and playing a good team at the MCG is a great test.
Tigers are the pick coming off a bye.
Richmond +3.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Sydney -3.5 points – none
Port Adelaide -57.5 / Brisbane +57.5
Wow, this is a huge line – biggest so far this season. Imagine if the Lions hadn’t won last week, this line might have been closer to 70 points.
These teams have already played this year in round 6 and Port won by 83 points. Last year they played twice and the margins were 77 points and 94 points in favour of Port. These numbers make the 57.5 point line look small.
The Lions broke a 9-game losing streak last week with a 57 point win over the Dockers. Unfortunately though Port Adelaide in Adelaide, when the Power have a lot more at stake, is a tough follow up.
Port know how to win big and can cover this big line.
Port Adelaide -57.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan
Brisbane +57.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong
Gold Coast -18.5 / Carlton +18.5
Gary Ablett’s great form continued last week when the Suns upset the Hawks in Melbourne.
The Blues are also coming off a surprise win that knocked the Giants out of top spot on the ladder hanging on in a thrilling one-point win.
Which team can back it up this weekend?
The Blues have only played two matches outside of Melbourne so far this season. They were both losses – one a 90 point thumping from the Power and the other a solid 35 point beating from the Dockers in Perth. For that reason the Suns win this line on the Gold Coast.
Gold Coast -18.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
Carlton +18.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, TRM
Western Bulldogs -12.5 / Melbourne +12.5
6th (Dees) vs 8th (Dogs) on the ladder – both teams sitting on a win/loss of 6-5. It is unthinkable that the reigning premiers will drop out of the top 8 if they lose this one.
The Dogs suffered a bad loss to Sydney last week (a 46 point loss) while the Demons are coming off a spirited 4 point win over Collingwood.
It’s hard to go past the Dogs at Etihad Stadium where they are 5 from 5 this season. This match is the first of six more matches at that ground for the Dogs in the second half of the season. And the -12.5 point line should be attainable.
Western Bulldogs -12.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
Melbourne +12.5 points – Hollywood, Ding Dong
Here is the table after round 12:
Round 13 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..
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