Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
Round 13 was another good round for Underdogs (4 out of 6 lines) and Away Teams (5 out of 6 lines) which has been a consistent pattern all season – both running at about a 60% success rate. Perhaps the best tip might be to pick the opposite of yours truly (0 from 6 in round 13).
On the teams line ladder one mover of note is the Western Bulldogs who lost another game (and the line) and are now in second last position.
Back to the full 9 match rounds. Here are the hump day lines (lines cut on Tuesday again due to the Thursday night match):
ROUND 14 LINES
Adelaide -48.5 / Hawthorn +48.5
Both teams are coming off a bye so should be fresh for this Thursday night match. That said, Hawthorn still have significant injury woes.
The Crows have a lot to play for as they try to hold onto a top two position on the ladder whereas the Hawks season is more or less over with finals surely out of reach.
The Crows beat the Hawks by 24 points in round 2 at the MCG. At Adelaide Oval this week the line has been set at 48.5 points.
It’s a big line – the Hawks should be competitive enough to keep it within 8 goals.
Adelaide -48.5 points – Big O
Hawthorn +48.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Sydney -16.5 / Essendon +16.5
Sydney continued their march back towards the top 8 last week with a come-from-behind win over the Tigers. They are now only one game off 8th spot which is currently occupied by their opponents on Friday night – the Bombers. There is a lot to play for in this one.
The Swans have won four of their last five matches and are rightfully favourites at the SCG.
The Bombers are coming off a bye but their form had also been very good prior to the break going 3-2 in their last five games including wins over Geelong, West Coast and Port Adelaide and an honourable loss to the Giants in Sydney.
Away teams and underdogs have been getting it done all year – Bombers to stay within the 16.5 point line.
Sydney -16.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong
Essendon +16.5 points – Dusty, Big O, TRM
Collingwood +4.5 / Port Adelaide -4.5
About this time last year Port came to the MCG and crushed the Pies by 67 points. At the ‘G again, 4th placed Port are slight favourites against the Pies who are sitting in 13th position.
Port have gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W since round 6 so Collingwood fans will be hopeful that that pattern continues for one more week.
Coming off a 3-1 win/loss run over their last four matches, then a break with the bye, the Pies are looking like a dangerous task for the Power this weekend.
Collingwood +4.5 points – Dusty, Ding Dong
Port Adelaide -4.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM
Brisbane +34.5 / GWS -34.5
Another big head-start given to the Lions here with the line set at 34.5 points. Last week they were beaten by Port Adelaide by 40 points but won the line (+57.5).
The Giants lost to the Blues by one point before having a bye last week. The week off will have done them good but they still have a huge injury list to manage.
With full strength teams the Giants might win this one by 100 points but under current circumstances the Lions might be a fighting chance (to win the line at least).
Brisbane +34.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan
GWS -34.5 points – Big O, TRM, Ding Dong
Western Bulldogs -16.5 / North Melbourne +16.5
The Dogs have to turn the corner at some stage don’t they? Etihad Stadium is normally their fortress but the Demons smashed them there last week. The Bulldogs have some serious injuries but not as bad as it was in 2016 when they were able to manage the situation.
The Kangaroos are also struggling again after a good patch where they won 4 out of 5 matches between rounds 6 and 10. In years gone by Etihad Stadium has also been a happy hunting ground for the Roos but this year they have a 2-6 win/loss at Docklands.
In round 4 this year the Dogs beat the Roos by 3 points. This time the Dogs need to win more convincingly.
Western Bulldogs -16.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan, TRM
North Melbourne +16.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Ding Dong
West Coast -16.5 / Melbourne +16.5
The Eagles beat Geelong in Perth last week and should get another 4 points at home against Melbourne. If they do it will make it 10 straight wins for the Eagles over the Dees which started back in 2010.
Melbourne have won three in a row though and some are starting to consider them a serious threat in an open season.
The Away Team and Underdog bias leads to taking Melbourne at the +16.5 point line.
West Coast -16.5 points – Hollywood, Shan
Melbourne +16.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Ding Dong
Geelong -36.5 / Fremantle +36.5
Geelong back at Simonds Stadium (3-0 win/loss this season) and Fremantle in shocking form (most recently losing to the Lions by 10 goals) points to a big win for the Cats.
Cats to reel in the -36.5 point line.
Geelong -36.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan
Fremantle +36.5 points – Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong
Richmond -13.5 / Carlton +13.5
Richmond have owned this fixture for the last few years having won the last five matches against the Blues. The Blues are however a much improved team and are coming off two good wins against the Suns and Giants.
The Tigers need this win to stay well entrenched in the top 8 and I think their myriad of small speedy forwards will trouble the Blues. Tigers to cover the -13.5 point line.
Richmond -13.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Carlton +13.5 points – Hollywood
St Kilda -26.5 / Gold Coast +26.5
The Suns loss to the Blues last weekend was really costly. Had they won and gone to a 6-6 win/loss record they were still a fighting chance for finals. But now 5-7 and with a terrible percentage (88.1%), it looks like another disappointing season for the Suns.
St Kilda on the other hand had a good win over North Melbourne to go to a 6-6 win/loss and are still right in the finals discussion.
The Saints are fairly heavy favourites here with the line at 26.5 points. In Gary Ablett’s 300th game the Suns will battle hard for the little maestro. Suns to win the line. [UPDATE: Ablett out]
St Kilda -26.5 points – Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Gold Coast +26.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Hollywood
The table after round 13:
Round 14 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..
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