Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
The Tigers continue to exceed expectations winning the line and match last week against Port Adelaide in Adelaide. Underdogs (7 out of 9) and Away Teams (6 out of 9) also continued to dominate lines in round 15.
At the other end of the line ladder, the Bulldogs lost another line and match last week, this time against the Eagles at Etihad Stadium.
Here are the hump day lines (cut on Wednesday):
ROUND 16 LINES
Adelaide -24.5 / Western Bulldogs +24.5
The reigning premiers are stuck outside the top 8 and are yet to show obvious signs of turning the corner in 2017. If they don’t do something soon, this season is going to slip away.
Adelaide are in a far more desirable situation as they sit pretty in 2nd spot on the ladder. Finals are a long way off but the possibility of a home qualifying final edges closer to becoming a reality with every extra win that keeps the Crows in the top 2.
At the -24.5 point line, the Crows lacklustre performances over the last two weeks (a loss to the Hawks at home and a narrow win over Carlton) do not provide for much confidence. The Bulldogs however make a much stronger case for a vote of no confidence having won only 2 of their last 7 matches and having failed at the line all season. I need to stop making the same mistake of tipping the Dogs therefore Crows to cover the line.
Adelaide -24.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM
Western Bulldogs +24.5 points – Big O, Shan, Ding Dong
Hawthorn +14.5 / GWS -14.5
13th vs 1st would normally warrant a big line but such is the state of the competition this season the Giants are only 14.5 point favourites.
Two good wins in a row for the Hawks (over Adelaide and Collingwood) has kept the outside possibility of playing finals alive for the time being.
The Giants are holding up bravely despite a horrendous injury list. This trip down to Tasmania will be another tough test.
Given the strain on the Giants player list I think we might see the odd falter similar to the loss to Carlton a few weeks ago. For that reason the Hawks are my tip at +14.5 points.
Hawthorn +14.5 points – Dusty, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
GWS -14.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood
Collingwood +2.5 / Essendon -2.5
The 2.5 point line suggests that this will be a close contest. Finals seem to be out of the picture for the Pies but the Dons are still in with a fighting chance if they can regain their composure after a bad loss to bottom-of-the-ladder Brisbane last week.
In the ANZAC Day match it was the Bombers by 18 points. Since then Collingwood have a win/loss of 4-5 and Essendon 3-6 so neither team are travelling particularly well. Some of the Bombers losses however have been narrow losses to quality teams including the Swans, Giants and Tigers.
Bombers to cover the line.
Collingwood +2.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong
Essendon -2.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan
Sydney -38.5 / Gold Coast +38.5
The Swans are on a massive run back into finals (and even premiership) contention having won 7 of their last 8 matches.
Whilst Gold Coast’s up and down form has produced some good wins, it is hard to see them troubling Sydney this weekend. That said, a big line has been set and Away Team and Underdog bias is on their side. Despite Gary Ablett’s absence again, Suns to stay within the +38.5 point line.
Sydney -38.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM
Gold Coast +38.5 points – Dusty, Shan, Ding Dong
Brisbane +34.5 / Geelong -34.5
Even with injury concerns the Cats are producing good results and this week they get their captain and gun player Joel Selwood back. Can they chase down a big line against the Lions in Brisbane?
On the back of a surprise win over the Bombers last week in Melbourne the Lions should be competitive enough to stay within the +34.5 point line.
Brisbane +34.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
Geelong -34.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, TRM
St Kilda +9.5 / Richmond -9.5
The Saints are going pretty well having won their last three matches but there is no going past the Tigers at the moment. Richmond have a win/loss of 11-3 at the line this season and there is no good reason not to take them here at the -9.5 point line.
St Kilda +9.5 points – nil
Richmond -9.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
North Melbourne -10.5 / Fremantle +10.5
North Melbourne have lost 4 matches in a row and sit in 17th position. Fremantle are going just as bad having lost their last 5 games and now sit 14th.
These teams played in round 5 and it was the Dockers by 5 points in WA. This time in Melbourne and a couple of significant outs for the Dockers (big Sandilands and key forward Cam McCarthy) points to a Roos win here and the line is narrow. Roos to cover the -10.5 point line.
North Melbourne -10.5 points – Dusty, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Fremantle +10.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood
Carlton +7.5 / Melbourne -7.5
The Demons might have been 30 point favourites had this game been played a couple of weeks ago but a few key injuries and a heavy loss to the Swans last week has soured the outlook for the Dees. They are only 7.5 point favourites here.
Carlton won another line last week only losing to the Crows by 12 points. The Blues have played the MCG pretty well this year and catch the Demons when they are a little rattled. I think Carlton are due for a sneaky win.
Carlton +7.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood
Melbourne -7.5 points – Big O, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
West Coast -7.5 / Port Adelaide +7.5
7th vs 5th on the ladder, this is understandably a narrow line with the Eagles only 7.5 point favourites. But the Eagles beat Port by 10 points in Adelaide only two months ago (round 7) so in the west I think West Coast can win again by just as much.
West Coast -7.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, Ding Dong
Port Adelaide +7.5 points – TRM
The line tipping table after round 15:
Round 16 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..