Hump Day Lines: Round 17

Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.

Lines get even more difficult to predict as teams start to fall out of finals contention and focus on next year. Figuring out who is still hell-bent on winning each and every match might be the hardest part of tipping the line for the rest of the year.


Rd16-team line ladder


St Kilda -5.5 / Essendon +5.5

The Saints blew the Tigers away last week by 67 points – at one stage they led by over 90 points. Were the Saints great or were the Tigers poor? No doubt it was a bit of both but to demolish another top 8 team in that fashion clearly shows that St Kilda played a blinder. That win has taken their current winning streak to four matches.

The line has been set at only 5.5 points. Essendon’s best is pretty good but the Saints are flying.


St Kilda -5.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong

Essendon +5.5 points – Hollywood, TRM

Geelong -15.5 / Hawthorn +15.5

In round 4 the Cats thumped the Hawks by 86 points. Since then the Hawks have definitely improved but you could argue that the Cats improvement has been just as significant as the year has rolled on.

Geelong at the -15.5 point line.


Geelong -15.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM

Hawthorn +15.5 points – Big O, Ding Dong

Retiring star Luke Hodge – 300+ games, 4 premierships, 3-time All-Australian and 2-time Norm Smith medallist

Port Adelaide -35.5 / North Melbourne +35.5

North Melbourne have been a massive disappointment this season. They may have a lot of cash to throw around but would a gun player like Josh Kelly or Dustin Martin really want to join a team that is struggling so badly?

The 35.5 point line seems low. The Power are a team who know how to win big. Once they get on top they just keep going. Port to cover.


Port Adelaide -35.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong

North Melbourne +35.5 points – Big O

Gold Coast -1.5 / Collingwood +1.5

It’s round 17 and we are starting to see some dead rubbers. 14th and 15th on the ladder, Gold Coast and Collingwood are out finals contention so the focus will likely shift to coaching changes, player changes, early draft picks, etc.

At this point it’s difficult to know which team will turn up with the higher level of motivation. When in doubt, follow the Away Team & Underdog bias – Pies to win the line.


Gold Coast -1.5 points – Big O, Ding Dong

Collingwood +1.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM

GWS -1.5 / Sydney +1.5

The Giants are slight favourites here (-1.5 points). To their credit they have been plugging along pretty well scratching out wins (and draws) with a depleted player list. But the Swans are the in-form team of the competition and should win this line and their sixth consecutive match.


GWS -1.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Ding Dong

Sydney +1.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan, TRM

sydney harbour bridge
This is Buddy’s city (Image credit: Jason Tong [License])

Melbourne +18.5 / Adelaide -18.5

No real home ground advantage for the Demons here with this game to be played in Darwin. The Dees beat the Crows in Adelaide in round 8 by 41 points. Melbourne found a way to win last weekend against Carlton but Adelaide are much tougher competition and I think the Dees injury troubles will start to show on the field.

Top-of-the-table Crows to reign in and cover the -18.5 point line.


Melbourne +18.5 points – Shan

Adelaide -18.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong

Richmond -36.5 / Brisbane +36.5

After an unexpected smashing dished out by St Kilda last week, the Tigers get a good opportunity to get straight back on the winners list against bottom-of-the-ladder Brisbane.

The Lions beat Essendon at Etihad Stadium only two weeks ago and I think they could make Richmond sweat again this weekend.

The Tigers should win the match but I think the Lions can stay within 36.5 points.


Richmond -36.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, TRM, Ding Dong

Brisbane +36.5 points – Dusty, Shan

Carlton +12.5 / Western Bulldogs -12.5

Season 2017 is finished for the Bulldogs if they don’t turn the corner this week against the Blues. Their fast paced game style has been smothered this year by opposition teams.

Carlton have lost narrowly against the Crows and Demons in the last two weeks. Can they stay close again or even win?

I just think the Dogs have too much at stake – Dogs to cover the -12.5 point line.


Carlton +12.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, TRM

Western Bulldogs -12.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong

Fremantle +14.5 / West Coast -14.5

This is the second western derby for season 2017; the Eagles won the first in round 6 by 41 points. Since then both teams have had some ups and downs but overall the Eagles are travelling much better than the Dockers this season and a comfortable Eagles win would not be a surprise.

The -14.5 point line for the Eagles seems very achievable.


Fremantle +14.5 points – Ding Dong

West Coast -14.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM



The line tipping table after round 16:


Round 17 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..

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