Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.
Away teams got it done again in round 17 winning 8 out of 9 games at the line. The win/loss for the season is now 88-56 (61%) for away teams which has them just ahead of underdogs (86-58 or 60%). Home teams and favourites have been on the nose all season.
On the team line ladder the Crows and Tigers are leading the way.
ROUND 18 LINES
Adelaide -15.5 / Geelong +15.5
1st vs 2nd on the ladder – what a great way to kick off the round. With GWS breathing down their necks both teams will be desperate for this win to hold onto a top two spot.
In round 11 the Cats beat the Crows by 22 points down at Simonds Stadium. This week though at Adelaide Oval the Crows will go in as favourites – the line is set at 15.5 points.
It might be best to make this tip at the last minute as there are doubts over big name players including Adelaide’s Rory Sloane (concussion) and Geelong’s Patty Dangerfield (foot).
Adelaide -15.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Ding Dong
Geelong +15.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, Shan, TRM
Essendon -23.5 / North Melbourne +23.5
The difference between Essendon’s best and their worst is enormous which makes tipping them incredibly hard. If they bring their best they could win this one by 10 goals like they have against St Kilda and Port Adelaide in recent weeks. But their worst could see them replicate their terrible loss to Brisbane only three weeks ago.
With a finals position well within reach I am going to trust the Bombers to bring their A-game and clear the -23.5 point line.
Essendon -23.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan
North Melbourne +23.5 points – TRM, Ding Dong
Melbourne +7.5 / Port Adelaide -7.5
Port Adelaide are in good form having won 5 of their last 7 matches and Melbourne have far too many injuries and suspensions. For those two reasons alone this line belongs to the Power.
Melbourne +7.5 points – Hollywood, Ding Dong
Port Adelaide -7.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, TRM
Western Bulldogs -17.5 / Gold Coast +17.5
With hopes of finals football only just still alive for the Dogs they would much prefer to be playing this home game in Melbourne rather than Cazaly’s Stadium in Cairns. That head office cash grab could prove to be very costly.
The Suns have lost their last two matches but have not lost three matches in a row all season. Will this be the first time?
The Bulldogs giving up 17.5 points up in Queensland is too much for me. Suns at the +17.5 point line.
Western Bulldogs -17.5 points – Big O, Moose Dogs, TRM, Ding Dong
Gold Coast +17.5 points – Dusty, Hollywood, Shan
Sydney -26.5 / St Kilda +26.5
Sydney have a relatively healthy player list and are in sizzling form winning six matches in a row and 9 of the last 10. It’s hard to believe they were an 80-1 premiership chance after six rounds and now have odds of 6-1 to go all the way.
The Saints were very disappointing against the Bombers last week with that loss killing a four match winning streak. They have not beaten the Swans since 2012 and the last 5 losses have been at an average losing margin of 69 points (including a 50 point loss in round 9 of this season).
It’s hard to see anything stopping Sydney at the moment including the -26.5 point line.
Sydney -26.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
St Kilda +26.5 points – Hollywood, TRM
Fremantle -0.5 / Hawthorn +0.5
The re-signing of Nat Fyfe for the next six years was great news for the Dockers during the week. They will not play finals in 2017 but with some promising youngsters coming through and the long-term commitment of their star player, Docker fans can look to the future with some optimism.
The Hawks will also be absent from September action in 2017. Had they snuck over the line against Geelong last week the door may have still been open but in a very cruel way the door was closed on the Hawks season as it was last year with an Isaac Smith missed goal.
In the tightest line of the year Freo are 0.5 point favourites. The Hawks last month of football has been very good though so I fancy them to win this one.
Fremantle -0.5 points – Moose Dogs, Hollywood
Hawthorn +0.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Shan, TRM, Ding Dong
Richmond +7.5 / GWS -7.5
It was only back in round 9 that these teams faced-off for the first time in 2017 and that ended in a dramatic 3 point win to the Giants with a Jeremy Cameron goal at the death.
GWS will start favourites again but cracks are starting to show under the strain of an enormous injury list. Of their last five matches they have only managed one win, two draws and two losses.
Down at the MCG I think the Tigers can add to the Giants bad run.
Richmond +7.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan, TRM
GWS -7.5 points – Big O, Ding Dong
Collingwood +7.5 / West Coast -7.5
The Eagles sit in 8th position on the ladder and need this win desperately to stay in the top 8. Their record in Melbourne is always an issue but at Etihad Stadium this season they have two wins and one loss.
The Pies are well and truly out of the finals race so they will need to find other motivation to get the win here.
The Eagles should cover the -7.5 point line.
Collingwood +7.5 points – TRM, Ding Dong
West Coast -7.5 points – Dusty, Big O, Moose Dogs, Hollywood, Shan
Brisbane +9.5 / Carlton -9.5
The Blues will start favourites for the first time this year in this match on Sunday. And, not surprisingly, the only team still yet to start a match as favourites after this weekend will be the Lions.
The Lions win/loss record is 1-6 at the Gabba this season. In their defence though, 5 of the 6 losses were against the top five teams (Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Port Adelaide and Richmond) and the other was against the Bombers back in round 2. This weekend against Carlton presents the Lions with a great opportunity to pinch another win.
On the assumption that there is no concerns about jeopardising the #1 draft pick, the Lions look a good thing with the 9.5 point head start.
Brisbane +9.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan, Ding Dong
Carlton -9.5 points – Big O, Hollywood, TRM
The line tipping table after round 17:
Round 18 results and an updated ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..