Hump Day Lines: Grand Final

Dusty Lines for Footy Inc.

Fittingly, the two teams who have dominated the line ladder all season have won through to the 2017 AFL Grand Final. The Tigers have won 75% of their matches at the line and the Crows have won 66.7% which is a reflection of both these teams exceeding expectations in 2017. The Crows 66.7% at the line is particularly impressive given they have started favourites in 24 of their 25 matches this season (including the grand final) – they only started as underdogs in round 1 against GWS in Sydney. By comparison, the Tigers have only started as favourites 15 times and as underdogs 10 times.

Below is the line ladder followed by the final line preview of season 2017.

LINE LADDER

W3 finals-team line ladder

GRAND FINAL LINE

Adelaide -5.5 / Richmond +5.5

The grand finalists only other meeting this season resulted in Adelaide dishing out a 76 point drubbing to Richmond in round 6 at Adelaide Oval. That was five months ago and a lot has changed, especially for the Tigers, so a much closer encounter is expected on grand final day. The Crows will start 5.5 point favourites.

Many consider Adelaide the most well balanced side in the competition with winning combinations up forward, down back and through the midfield. Richmond on the other hand are a little unorthodox, especially up forward where they play with just the one key forward (Jack Riewoldt) and a squadron of speedy smalls.

Experience in grand finals is non-existent for both teams. Experience on the ‘G however obviously favours the Tigers being their home ground. Richmond have won 11 from 13 matches at the MCG this season including five in a row after round 13. That said, Adelaide have played on the ‘G three times this year for two wins and a draw so maybe the venue is not such a big advantage for the Tiges.

The Crows have hardly put a foot wrong all season and have been the most convincing and most consistent team in the competition. The group has been through so much together over the last few years that a premiership seems like a fitting end to an incredible story.

For the Tigers, this amazing season has come out of nowhere after a very disappointing 2016. It’s been 37 years since they last lifted the premiership cup.

Two great stories but only one will have a happy ending. With the flip of a coin I’m taking the Tigers to win one final line at +5.5 points (and probably the match).

Tips:

Adelaide -5.5 points – Big O, Ding Dong, Hollywood, TRM

Richmond +5.5 points – Dusty, Moose Dogs, Shan

Trent_Cotchin_2017.2
Trent Cotchin (Image credit: Flickerd [License])
Rory_Sloane_2017.2
Rory Sloane (Image credit: Flickerd [License])

STANDINGS

It has been a tough slog for the resident tipsters this season – only TRM will finish with a plus 0.500 record. But this year has been all about the Underdogs, who have won over 56% of lines, and Away Teams (53%) have had the edge over Home Teams (47%) at the line.

The line tipping table after week 3 of finals:

W3 finals-table

Results from the grand final and the final ladder will be published next week on Footy Inc..

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